Featured in October’s Timer Digest

“In calendar 2018, The Mutual Fund Strategist ranked #7 in the Long Term category and #2 in the Gold category. The Mutual Fund Strategist also ranked #2 in the Bond category for performance over the 5-Year period ending December 31, 2018. Holly has previously been featured on the cover of Timer Digest in 2015, 2011, and 2009, as was her father in 1984, 1992 and 2006, ” writes Jim Schmidt, publisher of Timer Digest of Greenwich, Connecticut.

Timer Digest monitors over 100 leading newsletter market timing models.

Click here to check out a sample issue of The Mutual Fund Strategist.

♦ My readings will change without notice,  so please don’t buy or sell solely based on anything you read in this blog. ♦

 

 

Top Timer Recognition: Stocks, Bonds, Gold

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Timer Digest monitors over 100 leading newsletter market timing models.

Click here to check out a sample issue of The Mutual Fund Strategist.

♦ Please note that my readings will change without notice,  so please don’t buy or sell solely based on anything you read in this blog. ♦

Still alive and kicking

Last year a number of analysts sounded the death knell for the bond market. The chorus grew louder in mid-December when the Federal Reserve announced it would begin scaling back its stimulus program in January. Prevailing wisdom said that since the Fed’s $85 billion monthly bond-buying program has kept interest rates artificially low, bonds would soon come under downside pressure given the inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. Funny, someone forgot to tell the bond market.

Take a look at the year-to-date charts above representing US bonds, US high yield bonds, US municipal bonds and (for good measure) international bonds. My proxies for these markets are  iShares Core Total US Bond Market ETF (AGG), iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bd (HYG), iShares National AMT-Free Muni Bond (MUB) and SPDR Barclays International Treasury Bd (BWX).  Through February 27 these exchange-traded funds have increased 2.0%, 2.6%, 3.4% and 2.3%, respectively, and are up 3.0%, 7.7%, 6.5% and 3.8% over the past six months.

I don’t disagree that the 32-year old bull market in Treasury bonds is long in tooth. Looking back at 200 years of data on interest rates in the US, bond bull markets historically run 22-37 years. But I also know from studying the past that bond markets roll over very slowly – it can take 2 to 14 years to change trend. Bottom line: Low rates can last for a long time. Take the guesswork out of the investment process and let charts guide your decisions. My newsletter provides intermediate-trend buy and sell signals for the bond markets shown above.

♦ Please note that my readings will change without notice,  so please don’t buy or sell solely based on anything you read in this blog.